SEMI hosted a pre-show press conference ahead of SEMICON TAIWAN 2024, where Senior Director of Industry Research Clark Tseng outlined the latest trends in the global semiconductor market. Mr. Tseng reported that while electronic equipment sales have remained steady in the first half of the year, semiconductor revenue has surged by over 20% compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is largely driven by rising memory prices and the increasing demand for AI chips.
For 2024, SEMI forecasts semiconductor revenue growth of 20%, with a notable 10% rise in revenue excluding memory. However, without the contribution from AI-related products, overall semiconductor revenue growth would drop to a modest 3%.
Mr. Tseng also highlighted the recovery in wafer fab capacity utilization, which bottomed out in Q1 2024 and is projected to reach 70% by Q3, continuing to improve into Q4. This recovery, along with expected demand increases in the communications, industrial, and automotive sectors, sets the stage for a healthy rebound in semiconductor demand in 2025, with potential revenue growth of 20%.
Despite geopolitical challenges, particularly China’s aggressive investment in mature process capacities amid U.S. trade tensions, the global semiconductor equipment market is expected to see only a slight 3% growth this year, reaching $109.5 billion. However, driven by advancements in logic chips and packaging, the market is projected to grow by 16% in 2025 to $127.5 billion.
The outlook for semiconductor equipment spending from 2023 to 2027 shows a strong compound annual growth rate in the U.S. (22%), Europe and the Middle East (19%), Japan (18%), and South Korea (13%), with Taiwan seeing a more moderate growth of 9%. In contrast, China may experience a decline due to overinvestment and geopolitical pressures.
As for the silicon wafer market, while shipments are expected to increase quarter by quarter in the latter half of 2024, total shipments are likely to decrease by 3% for the year, with recovery anticipated in 2025.
