Today, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics is slated to unveil a revised GDP forecast for 2023, with expectations pointing towards another downward adjustment. The persistently sluggish performance of exports and a lackluster rebound in investment momentum, especially in the wake of a third-quarter GDP downward revision, are key contributors to this anticipated adjustment. The revised economic growth rate for the year is speculated to dip below the initially projected figure of 1.61%.
In August, due to disappointing export figures and underwhelming private investment, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics had already slashed the economic growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.61%. The economic landscape further darkened when the third-quarter economic growth estimate came in at 1.32%, prompting another revision to the GDP forecast. The downward trajectory has raised concerns about the overall economic performance for the remainder of the year.
Although there was a brief positive turn in export growth in September, the subsequent dip back into negative territory in October has added to the economic uncertainty. Despite predictions by the Ministry of Finance for a potential return to positive export growth in November and December, doubts linger about whether these expectations can be met. Factors such as prolonged industrial inventory adjustments, a deceleration in manufacturer capital expenditures, and subpar private investment performance contribute to the primary reasons for the downward revision in this year’s economic growth rate. The challenge of meeting fourth-quarter export targets further adds to the complexity of the economic outlook.
